A Novel Risk Score for Type 2 Diabetes Containing Sleep Duration: A 7-Year Prospective Cohort Study among Chinese Participants

Table 4

The performance of existing scores in predicting incident diabetes in the Beijing Health Management Cohort study.

Year	Leading author	Population	Predictors	Validation in the Beijing Health Management Cohort study
				-index (95% CI)	value of Hosmer-Lemeshow test
2003	Lindstrom	Finnish	^‡Age, BMI, waist circumference, hypertension, ^§history of high blood glucose	0.69 (0.68, 0.70)	0.560
2005	Kanaya	American	Age, sex, TG, FPG	0.68 (0.67, 0.69)	0.173
2005	Schmidt	American	^||Age, race, parental history of diabetes, FPG, SBP, waist circumference, height, HDL-C, TG	0.74 (0.73, 0.75)	0.269
2006	Aekplakorn	Thai	^¶Age, sex, BMI, waist circumference, hypertension, history of diabetes in parent or sibling	0.74 (0.73, 0.75)	0.404
2007	Schulze	German	Age, waist circumference, height, moderate alcohol, smoking, (red meat, whole-grain bread, coffee, ^#physical activity)	0.71 (0.70, 0.72)	0.002
2007	Wilson	American	BMI, parental history of diabetes, hypertension, HDL-C, TG, FPG	0.71 (0.70, 0.72)	0.197
2008	Balkau	French	^†Men: waist circumference, smoking, hypertension; Women: waist circumference, diabetes in the family, hypertension	Men: 0.71 (0.70, 0.72); Women: 0.69 (0.68, 0.70)	Men: 0.672; Women: 0.965
2009	Chien	Chinese	Age, BMI, WBC, TG, HDL-C, FPG	0.69 (0.67, 0.70)	0.005
2009	Gao	Indian	^‡‡Age, sex, BMI, waist circumference, FPG, TG	0.69 (0.67, 0.70)	0.115
2009	Kahn	American	^##Age, parental history of diabetes, hypertension, race, drinking, waist circumference, height, resting pulse, FPG, TG, HDL-C, UA	0.74 (0.73, 0.75)	0.424
2010	Chen	Australian	Age, sex, BMI, race, waist circumference, parental history of diabetes, history of high blood glucose, hypertension, smoking, physical inactivity	0.75 (0.74, 0.76)	0.029
2013	Zhou	Chinese	Age, sex, BMI, waist circumference, SBP, family history of diabetes	0.75 (0.74, 0.76)	0.029
2016	Wang	Chinese	Age, sex, BMI, family history of diabetes, education, hypertension, resting heart rate, FPG, TG	0.75 (0.74, 0.76)	0.214

The variables in parentheses were removed from the original model in validation because they could not be provided in sufficient detail in the Beijing Health Management Cohort study. BMI: body mass index; FPG: fasting plasma glucose; SBP: systolic blood pressure; HDL-C: high-density lipoprotein cholesterol; TG: triglyceride; WBC: white blood cell; UA: uric acid.