Research Article

Shrinking Regions in a Shrinking Country: The Geography of Population Decline in Lithuania 2001–2011

Table 4

Linear regression model of percentage of population change at the seniūnija level ().

⁢Model 1⁢Model 2⁢Model 3⁢Model 4

Geographical characteristics (ref = rural areas)
 3 largest cities13.540−10.784−12.568−12.429
 Areas within 15 km from 3 largest cities31.40413.67512.01112.084
 Other cities5.999−2.133−0.044−3.938−3.917
 Areas within 15 km from medium cities9.4793.272.6812.497
 Areas within 15 km from smaller cities3.8851.3420.0441.0540.0351.1290.037
Sociodemographic characteristics
 Percentage of working-age population, 2001−0.216−0.076−0.313−0.32
 Percentage of households with children, 20010.7260.7270.706
Socioeconomic characteristics
 Percentage of university education, 20010.4360.3530.39
 Change in the percentage of university education, 2001–20111.3221.211.225
 Percentage of employed, 20010.2070.2250.218
 Percentage of employment in business services, 20011.5961.5511.536
 Change in the percentage of employment in business services, 2001–20115.7735.6645.592
 Percentage of high-ranking occupation, 2001−0.269−0.218−0.107−0.24
 Percentage of joblessness, 20010.0410.0170.040.016
 Percentage of employment in industry and construction sector, 20010.0270.0190.0250.017
 Percentage of employment in traditional service sector, 20010.1780.173
 Percentage of employment in public administration, 2001−0.034−0.016−0.03−0.015
 Percentage of receiving social benefits, 2001−0.259−0.046−0.286−0.051
Municipal-level variables
 Average wage, 2001−0.01−0.035
 Foreign investments per capita 2001−20110.0330.055
 Number of economic entities per 1000 persons, 2001−0.105−0.035
 Number of social dwellings per persons, 20030.1630.022

Constant−20.715−56.005−49.523−44.980
0.4320.6330.6380.640
(df), significance540 (5), 0.000532 (13), 0.000527 (18), 0.000523 (22), 0.000
Residual sum of squares (total 107 440)61 00439 38938 85538 673

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