Shrinking Regions in a Shrinking Country: The Geography of Population Decline in Lithuania 2001–2011

Table 2

Linear regression model of percentage population change at the seniūnija level ().

	⁢Model 1		⁢Model 2		⁢Model 3		⁢Model 4		⁢Model 5
Locational characteristics (ref = rural areas)
3 largest cities	13.540		5.739		10.440		−1.297	−0.022	−10.784
Areas within 15 km from 3 largest cities	31.404		26.807		26.632		17.243		13.675
Other cities	5.999		0.301	0.006	1.186	0.024	−4.416	−0.091	−2.133	−0.044
Areas within 15 km from medium cities	9.479		7.394		7.365		4.588		3.27
Areas within 15 km from smaller cities	3.885		2.865		2.419	0.080	1.639	0.054	1.342	0.044
Sociodemographic characteristics
Percentage of working-age population, 2001			0.631		0.129	0.045	−0.354	−0.125	−0.216	−0.076
Percentage of households with children, 2001					0.431		0.709		0.726
Socioeconomic characteristics
Percentage of university education, 2001							0.517		0.436
Change in the percentage of university education, 2001–2011							1.791		1.322
Percentage of employed, 2001									0.207
Percentage of employment in business services, 2001									1.596
Change in the percentage of employment in business services, 2001–2011									5.773
Percentage of high-ranking occupation, 2001									−0.269
Constant	−20.715		−57.705		−42.546		−40.451		−56.005
	0.432		0.453		0.475		0.576		0.633
(df), significance	540 (5), 0.000		539 (6), 0.000		538 (7), 0.000		536 (9), 0.000		532 (13), 0.000
Residual sum of squares (total 107 440)	61 004		58 747		56 390		45 508		39 389

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