Effects of Environmental Temperature on Capnodis tenebrionis Adult Phenology

Table 1

The parameter estimate of a nonlinear model describing Capnodis tenebrionis adult phenology. The comparison with the linear regression for each year of the observed cumulative percentage versus the predicted values with the global logistic equation. Degree-day values at 50% of cumulative adults calculated with ordinary least squares regression for Capnodis tenebrionis adults (overwintering and emerging adults of the year) for two different Mediterranean areas (S: Sicily; C: Calabria).

Parameter estimates (SE) with logistic equations and regression statistics
Overwintering adult						Emerging adult
	Log. equat. parameter		Log. regression values versus observed cumulative		OLS regression		Log. equat. parameter		Log. regression values versus observed cumulative		OLS regression
2005 (S)	𝑎	167.99 (1.7)	𝑦=0.91𝑥+2.22	𝑅^2=0.997		2005 (S)	𝑎	109.70 (1.21)	𝑦=0.831𝑥+6.33	𝑅^2=0.922
	𝒷	−1.22 (0.01)		(𝑁=245)			𝒷	−24.75 (0.48)		(𝑁=123)
	x0	930.95 (15.22)			560.73		x0	832.96 (0.98)			727.41
	y0	0.49 (0.07)			(𝑟^2=0.9829)		y0	0.06 (0.1)			(𝑟^2=0.5147)
	𝑅^2	0.9998					𝑅^2	0.9984
2006 (S)	𝑎	161.56 (4.04)	𝑦=0.93𝑥−2.49	𝑅^2=0.991		2006 (S)	𝑎	571.93 (180.13)	𝑦=0.942𝑥+0.31	𝑅^2=0.978
	𝒷	−0.92 (0.02)		(𝑁=245)			𝒷	−6.21 (0.23)		(𝑁=123)
	x0	753.58 (41.16)			517.23		x0	1198.71 (83.18)			725.70
	y0	−0.83 (0.27)			(𝑟^2=0.9360)		y0	0.11 (0.14)			(𝑟^2=0.7166)
	𝑅^2	0.9982					𝑅^2	0.9970
2007 (S)	𝑎	117.52 (1.35)	𝑦=1.01𝑥−4.00	𝑅^2=0.973		2007 (S)	𝑎	108.88 (1.13)	𝑦=0.876𝑥+1.52	𝑅^2=0.997
	𝒷	−1.22 (0.02)		(𝑁=245)			𝒷	−13.22 (0.31)		(𝑁=123)
	x0	319.92 (7.12)			488.05		x0	812.03 (1.93)			690.76
	y0	0.511 (0.29)			(𝑟^2=0.8845)		y0	0.13 (0.14)			(𝑟^2=0.7416)
	𝑅^2	0.9974					𝑅^2	0.9979
2008 (C)	𝑎	120.79 (2.67)	𝑦=1.007𝑥+13.90	𝑅^2=0.904		2008 (C)	𝑎	228.14 (23.74)	𝑦=1.074𝑥+2.60	𝑅^2=0.896
	𝒷	402.77 (11.41)		(𝑁=245)			𝒷	−3.28 (0.14)		(𝑁=123)
	x0	1163.03			923.60		x0	1385.63 (79.62)			842.25
	y0	*			(𝑟^2=0.9908)		y0	0.044 (0.24)			(𝑟^2=0.9213)
	𝑅^2	0.9847					𝑅^2	0.9945
2009 (C)	𝑎	123.01 (2.05)	𝑦=0.991𝑥+3.89	𝑅^2=0.985		2009 (C)	𝑎	114.20 (1.00)	𝑦=1.066𝑥−13.13	𝑅^2=0.926
	𝒷	−1.67 (0.04)		(𝑁=245)			𝒷	−3.53 (0.06)		(𝑁=123)
	x0	768.28 (17.47)			736.34		x0	721.70 (4.91)			682.0
	y0	3.33 (0.30)			(𝑟^2=0.9582)		y0	0.22 (0.13)			(𝑟^2=0.9731)
	𝑅^2	0.9965					𝑅^2	0.9984
2005–2009	𝑎	137.42 (6.72)				2005–2009	𝑎	93.65 (1.27)
	𝒷	−1.18 (0.06)					𝒷	−12.94 (0.66)
	x0	726.74 (63.03)			636.55		x0	801.08 (3.49)			754.64
	y0	0.8499 (0.71)			(𝑟^2=0.8608)		y0	1.06 (0.38)			(𝑟^2=0.7807)
	𝑅^2	0.9231					𝑅^2	0.9176

∗Boltzmann equation 𝑌(𝑥)=𝑎/1+𝑒^{((−𝑥−𝑥𝑜)/𝑏)}.