Forecasting Credit Risk of SMEs in Supply Chain Finance Using Bayesian Optimization and XGBoost

Table 4

Enterprise supply chain financial risk indicators.

Types of index	Indicator name	Definition or calculation	Variable symbol
Label	ST	Company stock is special treatment	1 or 0
Profitability	Net fixed assets	Total fixed asset purchase price + capital improvements) – (accumulated depreciation + fixed asset liabilities)	X1
	Operating profit ratio	Operating profit/net sales	X2
	Return on equity(ROE)	Net income/shareholders’ equity	X3
	Gross profit margin	(Net sales − cost of goods sold)/net sales	X4
Solvency	Current ratio(CR)	Current assets/current liabilities	X5
	Quick ratio(QR)	(Current assets − inventories − prepaid expenses)/current liabilities	X6
	Cash ratio	Cash and cash equivalents/current liabilities	X7
	Debt-to-assets ratio	Total debt/total assets	X8
Development capability	Main business’s increasing rate of income	(Current period revenue − prior period revenue)/prior period revenue	X9
	Net profit margin ratio	Net profit/revenue	X10
	Net assets growth rate	(Current period net assets − prior period net assets)/prior period net assets	X11
Cash flow	Cash flow from operating activities	Funds from operations + changes in working capital	X12
	Current assets	Current assets are all the assets of a company that are expected to be sold or used as a result of standard business operations over the next year	X13
	Current liabilities	Current liabilities are a company’s debts or obligations that are due to be paid to creditors within 1 year.	X14
	Cash flow to sales ratio	Operating cash flow/net sales	X15
	Return on assets(ROA)	Net income/average total assets	X16
Operating capacity	Operating cash flow to net profit ratio	Operating cash flow/net profit	X17
	Operating cash flow ratio	Operating cash flow/current liabilities	X18
	Receivables turnover ratio	The receivables turnover ratio measures the efficiency with which a company is able to collect on its receivables or the credit it extends to customers	X19
	Inventory turnover	Inventory turnover refers to the amount of time that passes from the day an item is purchased by a company until it is sold	X20
	Days sales of inventory	Inventory turnover refers to the amount of time that passes from the day an item is purchased by a company until it is sold	X21
Platform as a service	Perfect order percentage	The perfect order rate measures how many orders you ship without incident, where incidents are damaged goods, inaccurate orders, or late shipments	X22
	Total orders	The number of all orders generated by the platform	X23
	Billing data	Billing data means data relating to the charges for consumption of services which have been paid for or otherwise	X24
Macroenvironment	GDP deflator	GDP deflator is a measure of the level of prices of all new, domestically produced, final goods, and services in an economy in a year	X25
	Consumer price index	CPI is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services	X26