A Crude Oil Spot Price Forecasting Method Incorporating Quadratic Decomposition and Residual Forecasting

Table 3

Indicators of factors influencing crude oil prices.

	Tier 1 indicators	Secondary indicators	Quantification of secondary indicators	Symbol representation
Factors affecting crude oil price	Commodity attributes	Crude oil supply	OPEC crude oil production	X1
			Non-OPEC crude oil production	X2
		Crude oil demand	OECD crude oil consumption	X3
		Crude oil inventory levels	U.S. crude oil inventories	X4
	Economic factors	US dollar index	USDX	X5
		Global economic policy uncertainty	EPU	X6
	Alternative energy sources	Natural gas prices	Henry hub natural gas spot price	X7
		Coal prices	Power coal offshore spot prices at the port of Newcastle, Australia	X8
	Geopolitical factors	Geopolitical risk index	GPR	X9