Research Article
Evaluation of Short-Term Freeway Speed Prediction Based on Periodic Analysis Using Statistical Models and Machine Learning Models
Table 1
Improvement percentage of hybrid models for different prediction horizons in peak hours at station C (time scale: 5 min).
| MAE | Prediction horizons (minutes) | 5 | 15 | 30 | 60 |
| ST | 0.1678 | 2.0201 | 6.5398 | 18.4136 | VAR | 0.7073 | 2.4666 | 7.7073 | 16.9290 | ARIMA | 0.6583 | 2.7986 | 13.5338 | 28.3774 | SVM | 2.7703 | 0.8935 | 9.5560 | 21.5672 | MLP | 0.3708 | 0.6867 | 5.3738 | 23.8708 | RNN | 1.4256 | 4.5202 | 8.9773 | 15.5103 |
| MAPE (%) | Prediction horizons (minutes) | 5 | 15 | 30 | 60 |
| ST | −0.0816 | 3.1284 | 11.1746 | 27.1694 | VAR | 5.5966 | 12.2921 | 17.4324 | 27.7299 | ARIMA | 3.1773 | 10.5383 | 23.3195 | 38.2678 | SVM | 5.0060 | 2.4855 | 16.7698 | 35.2814 | MLP | 2.4710 | 5.2158 | 10.1209 | 38.1002 | RNN | −1.3680 | 4.7849 | 18.4671 | 25.7139 |
| RMSE | Prediction horizons (minutes) | 5 | 15 | 30 | 60 |
| ST | 2.2066 | 7.9375 | 12.1864 | 21.1225 | VAR | 1.4003 | −2.3589 | 4.3848 | 17.1806 | ARIMA | 5.0394 | 11.0708 | 20.5272 | 32.1107 | SVM | 5.2385 | 7.5790 | 16.1069 | 28.5130 | MLP | 3.0359 | 9.1199 | 15.6351 | 28.6400 | RNN | 6.6514 | 11.1524 | 14.1581 | 21.2511 |
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