Research Article

Distributive Implications of Fertility Changes in Latin America

Table 2

Impact of fertility changes on poverty. Changes in the poverty headcount ratio (US 4 line).

CountryPeriodObserved change (i)Effects
Direct (ii)Hours (iii)NLI (iv)Total (v)

Argentina1992–2012−11.22−1.390.040.39−0.80
(0.08)(0.02)(0.01)(0.01)(0.02)

Brazil1990–2012−25.16−3.74−0.170.14−3.92
(0.03)(0.01)(0.00)(0.00)(0.01)

Chile1990–2011−33.24−1.560.18−1.43
(0.05)(0.01)(0.00)(0.01)

El Salvador1991–2010−14.12−4.98−0.34−5.31
(0.06)(0.04)(0.01)(0.05)

Mexico1992–2012−3.50−4.35−0.300.25−4.43
(0.10)(0.04)(0.02)(0.01)(0.04)

Peru1997–2012−23.20−3.83−0.19−3.94
(0.09)(0.03)(0.01)(0.03)

Uruguay1995–2012−1.56−0.080.000.02−0.05
(0.03)(0.02)(0.00)(0.00)(0.02)

Source: own calculations based on microdata from national household surveys.
Note. All effects are significant at the 1% level. The standard errors were calculated using bootstrap with 200 replications. The values of each effect are averages that result from taking alternatively each year in the comparison as the base year. The sample includes only households in which the head is between 25 and 45 years old. NLI: nonlabor income.