Prediction of the Stock Prices at Uganda Securities Exchange Using the Exponential Ornstein–Uhlenbeck Model

Table 1

Actual closing stock prices and predicted stock prices using the exponential Ornstein–Uhlenbeck model and the mixed ARMA-GARCH model and their MAPE for 12 days before the outbreak of COVID-19.

Date	Actual price	F (t) of EOU	MAPE EOU	F (t) of MAG	MAPE MAG
06/07/2017	27	27.0485	0.0485	27.0057	0.0057
07/07/2017	27	27.0667	0.0667	27.0998	0.0998
10/07/2017	27	26.9771	0.0229	27.0998	0.0998
11/07/2017	27	26.9750	0.0250	27.0998	0.0998
12/07/2017	27	27.0898	0.0898	27.0998	0.0998
13/07/2017	27.25	27.0851	0.1649	27.0998	0.1502
14/07/2017	27	27.0377	0.0377	27.0998	0.0998
17/07/2017	27	27.1050	0.1050	27.0998	0.0998
18/07/2017	27.25	27.0601	0.1899	27.0998	0.1502
19/07/2017	27	27.1141	0.1141	27.0998	0.0998
20/07/2017	27.25	27.1301	0.1199	27.0998	0.1502
21/07/2017	27.25	27.0231	0.2269	27.0998	0.1502

The bold values under F (t) of EOU are the predicted closing stock prices using the EOU model and each has been compared against the actual closing stock price. The bold values under F (t) of MAG are the predicted closing stock prices using the mixed ARMA-GARCH model and each has been compared against the actual closing stock price.