Detecting Warming Hiatus Periods in CMIP5 Climate Model Projections

Figure 1

Observed monthly global-mean surface temperature (GST) anomalies from GISTEMP for the period 1880–2015. The months at the end of 15-year periods with statistically meaningful trends are marked red for a positive trend and blue for a negative trend (overlaid with corresponding trend lines); black indicates no statistically meaningful trend for the prior 15-year period. The overlaid black trend line indicates the 1998–2012 observed warming hiatus.