Development and Validation of a Simple Model to Predict the Risk of Nonmelanoma Skin Cancer on Screening Total Body Skin Examination

Table 1

Potential predictors of skin cancer on screening TBSE.

	n	n (%) with skin cancer	Unadjusted odds ratio (95% CI)	Adjusted odds ratio (95% CI)
Age
<35	2580	2 (0.1)	1 (Reference)	1 (Reference)
35–49	2221	8 (0.4)	3.96 (0.97–16.24)	3.84 (0.96–15.43)
50–64	1953	26 (1.3)	14.17 (3.87–51.90)	13.10 (3.64–47.13)
≥65	1747	69 (3.9)	42.68 (12.07–150.95)	33.96 (9.72–118.67)
Gender
Male	3688	55 (1.5)	1.44 (0.98–2.11)	1.28 (0.87–1.89)
Female	4813	50 (1.0)	1 (Reference)	1 (Reference)
Previous NMSC
Yes	248	19 (7.7)	8.02 (4.82–13.35)	3.01 (1.78–5.10)
No	8253	86 (1.0)	1 (Reference)	1 (Reference)
SPT
I	248	9 (3.6)	7.08 (0.89–56.39)	2.57 (0.45–14.76)
II	2556	47 (1.8)	3.52 (0.48–25.67)	1.17 (0.23–6.07)
III	4719	43 (0.9)	1.73 (0.24–12.62)	0.66 (0.13–3.41)
IV	789	5 (0.6)	1.20 (0.14–10.32)	0.54 (0.09–3.31)
V-VI	189	1 (0.5)	1 (Reference)	1 (Reference)

TBSE-total body skin examination, CI-confidence interval; NMSC-nonmelanoma skin cancer; SPT-skin phototype. Exclusion criteria: history of melanoma, symptomatic (e.g., lesion of concern as chief complaint), missing values for above predictors. c-statistic = 0.831 (95% CI: 0.798–0.865) for multivariable model. c-statistic = 0.829 (95% CI: 0.794–0.863) for above multivariable model omitting gender.