Predicting Social Unrest Events with Hidden Markov Models Using GDELT

Table 4

Initial state transition matrix and initial state probabilities for Thailand.

(a)

0.2781	0.4172	0.1339	0.0877	0.0831
0.0999	0.5758	0.1538	0.0897	0.0808
0.1035	0.3398	0.3347	0.1196	0.1024
0.1117	0.3506	0.1178	0.2810	0.1389
0.1153	0.3362	0.1210	0.0878	0.3397

(b)

0.1263
0.4586
0.1746
0.1168
0.1237