Research Article
A Hybrid Grey Prediction Model for Small Oscillation Sequence Based on Information Decomposition
Table 5
EMD-ARMA-GM(1,1) model, ARIMA model and GM(1,1) model simulated values (units:1000 hectares).
| | Year | Raw data | EMD-GM(1,1)-ARMA | Model ARIMA | Model GM(1,1) | | | | | | |
| | 2010 | 37425.9 | 37425.9 | — | 38226.23 | 2.1384% | 37425.9 | — | | 2011 | 32470.5 | 30303.79 | 6.6729% | 26364.23 | 18.8056% | 31220.772 | 3.849% | | 2012 | 24962 | 24684.6 | 1.1113% | 27976.36 | 12.0758% | 29183.227 | 16.911% | | 2013 | 31349.8 | 32088.6 | 2.3566% | 21655.3 | 30.9236% | 27278.657 | 12.986% | | 2014 | 24890.7 | 24668.63 | 0.8922% | 19212.75 | 22.8116% | 25498.385 | 2.441% | | 2015 | 21769.8 | 22941.88 | 5.384% | 18678.01 | 14.2022% | 23834.297 | 9.483% | | 2016 | 26220.7 | 27177.18 | 3.6478% | 20250.14 | 22.7704% | 22278.812 | 15.033% | | 2017 | 18478.1 | 19995.16 | 8.21% | 18478.1 | — | 20824.842 | 12.7% |
| | MRSPE | | | 4.0393% | | 17.6754% | | 10.4863% |
|
|
