Looking for Accurate Forecasting of Copper TC/RC Benchmark Levels

<table class="fixed-width table-group" id="tab16"><tr><td><table class="table"><colgroup><col style="width:10.19em"/><col style="width:6.86em"/><col style="width:5.44em"/><col style="width:6.57em"/><col style="width:5.26em"/></colgroup><tr><td class="thead-hr" colspan="5"><hr/></td></tr><tr class="thead"><td class="align_left"> </td><td class="align_center"><span style="width: 26.6277ptpx;"><svg height="12.1044pt" id="M57" style="vertical-align:-0.2062998pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -11.8981 26.6277 12.1044" width="26.6277pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><rect height="0.65243" width="26.5281" x="0" y="-11.1958"></rect><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M962 650H795L470 145L347 650H176L170 622C268 613 275 606 244 503L190 322C150 188 132 126 118 91C102 50 80 33 18 28L12 0H245L251 28C175 35 170 48 174 93C177 128 191 180 220 284L292 542H294C331 392 383 150 409 4H432L774 555H776L714 137C700 40 694 34 612 28L606 0H868L874 28C793 34 784 37 797 137L849 533C859 612 863 616 956 622L962 650Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,12.546,0)"><path d="M449 634C442 637 425 643 405 650C376 660 341 666 307 666C181 666 98 590 98 485C98 400 170 343 215 310L246 288C307 243 343 204 343 147C343 67 291 18 219 18C104 18 61 124 51 202L23 199C28 124 27 71 27 47C47 22 122 -16 204 -16C324 -16 428 60 428 174C428 256 379 309 307 360L276 382C223 419 179 455 179 516C179 576 221 632 293 632C379 632 410 564 418 487L448 490C446 536 446 592 449 634Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,18.422,0)"><path d="M593 650H142L136 622C219 616 224 611 209 531L130 120C114 39 108 34 23 28L17 0H501C518 32 557 130 568 158L540 169C519 132 495 93 469 70C439 43 409 35 332 35C272 35 241 37 225 50C211 61 211 89 222 149L253 320H350C441 320 443 312 441 239H471L510 434H481C455 366 448 358 360 358H260L303 572C311 613 312 615 348 615H431C509 615 522 603 532 581C544 555 546 531 545 491L574 493C583 555 592 631 593 650Z"></path></g></svg></span></td><td class="align_center"><span style="width: 31.3383ptpx;"><svg height="11.9479pt" id="M58" style="vertical-align:-0.04979992pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -11.8981 31.3383 11.9479" width="31.3383pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><rect height="0.65243" width="31.2387" x="0" y="-11.1958"></rect><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M962 650H795L470 145L347 650H176L170 622C268 613 275 606 244 503L190 322C150 188 132 126 118 91C102 50 80 33 18 28L12 0H245L251 28C175 35 170 48 174 93C177 128 191 180 220 284L292 542H294C331 392 383 150 409 4H432L774 555H776L714 137C700 40 694 34 612 28L606 0H868L874 28C793 34 784 37 797 137L849 533C859 612 863 616 956 622L962 650Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,12.024,0)"><path d="M686 28C612 35 607 44 591 112C563 234 541 360 519 489L489 666L457 658L147 121C100 40 89 36 24 28L17 0H240L250 28C168 34 159 41 190 101L262 237H482C495 180 503 137 510 91C517 47 514 35 441 28L433 0H677L686 28ZM475 280H285L429 541H431L475 280Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,21.159,0)"><path d="M743 375C743 570 607 650 407 650H136L130 622C214 612 220 606 204 526L125 122C110 43 105 36 24 27L17 0H250C382 0 482 23 571 76C680 141 743 248 743 375ZM644 379C644 188 520 36 305 36C277 36 249 38 229 46C205 55 202 71 212 126L293 553C300 588 306 600 317 606C330 613 356 617 390 617C547 617 644 537 644 379Z"></path></g></svg></span></td><td class="align_center"><span style="width: 36.6491ptpx;"><svg height="11.9479pt" id="M59" style="vertical-align:-0.04979992pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -11.8981 36.6491 11.9479" width="36.6491pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><rect height="0.65243" width="36.5495" x="0" y="-11.1958"></rect><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M962 650H795L470 145L347 650H176L170 622C268 613 275 606 244 503L190 322C150 188 132 126 118 91C102 50 80 33 18 28L12 0H245L251 28C175 35 170 48 174 93C177 128 191 180 220 284L292 542H294C331 392 383 150 409 4H432L774 555H776L714 137C700 40 694 34 612 28L606 0H868L874 28C793 34 784 37 797 137L849 533C859 612 863 616 956 622L962 650Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,12.024,0)"><path d="M686 28C612 35 607 44 591 112C563 234 541 360 519 489L489 666L457 658L147 121C100 40 89 36 24 28L17 0H240L250 28C168 34 159 41 190 101L262 237H482C495 180 503 137 510 91C517 47 514 35 441 28L433 0H677L686 28ZM475 280H285L429 541H431L475 280Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,21.159,0)"><path d="M600 480C600 590 528 650 384 650H143L137 622C222 614 225 607 210 531L130 127C113 41 106 36 23 28L17 0H294L300 28C204 36 195 42 212 127L243 284L314 263C327 263 339 263 352 264C465 271 600 337 600 480ZM508 481C508 351 402 304 329 304C289 304 265 311 250 317L295 559C302 594 310 606 323 611C335 616 350 619 367 619C455 619 508 573 508 481Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,28.402,0)"><path d="M593 650H142L136 622C219 616 224 611 209 531L130 120C114 39 108 34 23 28L17 0H501C518 32 557 130 568 158L540 169C519 132 495 93 469 70C439 43 409 35 332 35C272 35 241 37 225 50C211 61 211 89 222 149L253 320H350C441 320 443 312 441 239H471L510 434H481C455 366 448 358 360 358H260L303 572C311 613 312 615 348 615H431C509 615 522 603 532 581C544 555 546 531 545 491L574 493C583 555 592 631 593 650Z"></path></g></svg></span></td><td class="align_center"><span style="width: 34.8093ptpx;"><svg height="12.1044pt" id="M60" style="vertical-align:-0.2062998pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -11.8981 34.8093 12.1044" width="34.8093pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><rect height="0.65243" width="34.7096" x="0" y="-11.1958"></rect><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M610 18C585 26 567 34 540 68C517 97 499 128 476 171C452 215 425 276 413 304C496 332 570 394 570 494C570 555 545 595 509 619S419 650 364 650H139L133 622C216 615 219 612 203 527L129 132C112 40 105 36 23 28L17 0H279L285 28C199 34 194 40 211 132L239 284H284C320 284 334 275 351 236C374 182 394 140 420 93C459 23 495 -1 592 -8H600L610 18ZM480 485C480 424 449 372 403 342C374 323 338 316 293 316H245L291 562C296 589 301 601 311 608S337 618 358 618C432 618 480 575 480 485Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,8.151,0)"><path d="M962 650H795L470 145L347 650H176L170 622C268 613 275 606 244 503L190 322C150 188 132 126 118 91C102 50 80 33 18 28L12 0H245L251 28C175 35 170 48 174 93C177 128 191 180 220 284L292 542H294C331 392 383 150 409 4H432L774 555H776L714 137C700 40 694 34 612 28L606 0H868L874 28C793 34 784 37 797 137L849 533C859 612 863 616 956 622L962 650Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,20.698,0)"><path d="M449 634C442 637 425 643 405 650C376 660 341 666 307 666C181 666 98 590 98 485C98 400 170 343 215 310L246 288C307 243 343 204 343 147C343 67 291 18 219 18C104 18 61 124 51 202L23 199C28 124 27 71 27 47C47 22 122 -16 204 -16C324 -16 428 60 428 174C428 256 379 309 307 360L276 382C223 419 179 455 179 516C179 576 221 632 293 632C379 632 410 564 418 487L448 490C446 536 446 592 449 634Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,26.573,0)"><path d="M593 650H142L136 622C219 616 224 611 209 531L130 120C114 39 108 34 23 28L17 0H501C518 32 557 130 568 158L540 169C519 132 495 93 469 70C439 43 409 35 332 35C272 35 241 37 225 50C211 61 211 89 222 149L253 320H350C441 320 443 312 441 239H471L510 434H481C455 366 448 358 360 358H260L303 572C311 613 312 615 348 615H431C509 615 522 603 532 581C544 555 546 531 545 491L574 493C583 555 592 631 593 650Z"></path></g></svg></span></td></tr><tr><td class="thead-hr" colspan="5"><hr/></td></tr><tr><td class="align_left">GBM TC/RC 2 Steps<svg height="6.01072pt" id="M61" style="vertical-align:-0.04980993pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -5.96091 7.75925 6.01072" width="7.75925pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M471 153C471 170 463 194 452 212C400 220 373 229 322 255C373 281 400 290 452 298C463 316 471 339 471 357C456 366 431 371 410 370C377 329 356 310 308 279C311 336 317 364 336 413C326 432 310 451 294 459C279 451 262 432 252 413C271 364 277 336 280 279C232 310 211 329 178 370C157 371 132 367 117 357C117 340 125 316 136 298C188 290 215 281 266 255C215 229 188 220 136 212C125 194 117 171 117 153C132 144 157 139 178 140C211 181 232 200 280 231C277 174 271 146 252 97C262 78 278 59 294 51C309 59 326 78 336 97C317 146 311 174 308 231C356 200 377 181 410 140C431 139 456 143 471 153Z"></path></g></svg></td><td class="align_center">1.03x10<sup>3</sup>/10.06</td><td class="align_center">22.00/2.42</td><td class="align_center">0.31/0.34</td><td class="align_center">24.47/2.71</td></tr><tr><td class="align_left">OUP TC/RC 2 Steps<svg height="6.01072pt" id="M62" style="vertical-align:-0.04980993pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -5.96091 7.75925 6.01072" width="7.75925pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M471 153C471 170 463 194 452 212C400 220 373 229 322 255C373 281 400 290 452 298C463 316 471 339 471 357C456 366 431 371 410 370C377 329 356 310 308 279C311 336 317 364 336 413C326 432 310 451 294 459C279 451 262 432 252 413C271 364 277 336 280 279C232 310 211 329 178 370C157 371 132 367 117 357C117 340 125 316 136 298C188 290 215 281 266 255C215 229 188 220 136 212C125 194 117 171 117 153C132 144 157 139 178 140C211 181 232 200 280 231C277 174 271 146 252 97C262 78 278 59 294 51C309 59 326 78 336 97C317 146 311 174 308 231C356 200 377 181 410 140C431 139 456 143 471 153Z"></path></g></svg></td><td class="align_center">373.31/3.76</td><td class="align_center">15.73/1.58</td><td class="align_center">0.1802/0.1813</td><td class="align_center">19.00/1.91</td></tr><tr><td class="align_left">LES TC/RC 2 Steps</td><td class="align_center">189.24/1.89</td><td class="align_center">9.72/0.97</td><td class="align_center">0.1057/0.1059</td><td class="align_center">13.75/1.37</td></tr><tr class="table-tr"><td colspan="5"><hr class="tbody-hr"/></td></tr></table></td></tr><tr class="table-fn"><td><div><svg height="6.01072pt" id="M63" style="vertical-align:-0.04980993pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -5.96091 7.75925 6.01072" width="7.75925pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M471 153C471 170 463 194 452 212C400 220 373 229 322 255C373 281 400 290 452 298C463 316 471 339 471 357C456 366 431 371 410 370C377 329 356 310 308 279C311 336 317 364 336 413C326 432 310 451 294 459C279 451 262 432 252 413C271 364 277 336 280 279C232 310 211 329 178 370C157 371 132 367 117 357C117 340 125 316 136 298C188 290 215 281 266 255C215 229 188 220 136 212C125 194 117 171 117 153C132 144 157 139 178 140C211 181 232 200 280 231C277 174 271 146 252 97C262 78 278 59 294 51C309 59 326 78 336 97C317 146 311 174 308 231C356 200 377 181 410 140C431 139 456 143 471 153Z"></path></g></svg>Averaged monthly steps.<br/></div></td></tr></table>

<div>TC/RC Best error measures for 2013–2014 forecasts after 1000 MC simulations.</div>

Complexity

Looking for Accurate Forecasting of Copper TC/RC Benchmark Levels

Table 16