Research Article

Conflicts of Interest during Contact Investigations: A Game-Theoretic Analysis

Table 3

Expected number of secondary cases for different disclosure choices (Scenario 8, Table 2, with ). The rows indicate the persons disclosed by Alice and Charlie; the columns indicate who Bob discloses. The cell entries indicate the expected number of secondary cases within the group, obtained by integrating (6).

ā€‰ Charlie discloses Bob discloses Bob discloses Bob discloses Bob discloses
ā€‰ Neither Alice only Charlie only Both

Alice discloses neither Neither 1 0.998 0.835 0.835
Alice only 0.998 0.997 0.834 0.834
Bob only 0.835 0.834 0.671 0.671
Both 0.835 0.834 0.671 0.671

Alice discloses Bob only Neither 0.508 0.506 0.158 0.158
Alice only 0.506 0.505 0.157 0.157
Bob only 0.506 0.505 0.157 0.157
Both 0.506 0.505 0.157 0.156

Alice discloses Charlie only Neither 0.508 0.506 0.506 0.506
Alice only 0.506 0.505 0.505 0.505
Bob only 0.158 0.157 0.157 0.157
Both 0.158 0.157 0.157 0.156

Alice discloses both Neither 0.156 0.155 0.154 0.154
Alice only 0.155 0.153 0.152 0.152
Bob only 0.154 0.152 0.152 0.151
Both 0.154 0.152 0.151 0.151