Development and Validation of a Prediction Model of the Risk of Pneumonia in Patients with SARS-CoV-2 Infection

Figure 6

Examples of the pneumonia risk model applications. (a and b): A 32-year-old male presented with a 1-day history of fever with a maximum temperature of 39.2°C. At the time of presentation, he was confirmed positive by nucleic acid testing for SARS-CoV-2. His routine blood test showed a CPR of 14.08 (InCRP = 2.70) and %Mon of 26.50. Considering his age of 32, the patient got a total of 75 points according to our pneumonia risk prediction model, with a pneumonia risk prediction probability of <0.1. The patient underwent a CT chest scan, which showed no abnormal findings. (c and d): Male, 17 years old, presented 4 days ago with a fever with a maximum temperature of 39.0°C. On presentation, he was confirmed positive by nucleic acid testing for SRRS-CoV-2. His routine blood test showed a CPR of 82.45 (InCRP = 4.41) with a %Mon of 8.30. Considering his age of 17, the patient had total points of 152 according to our pneumonia risk prediction model, with a pneumonia risk prediction probability of 0.68. The patient underwent a chest CT, which showed multiple lamellar ground-glass opacities in the lower lobe of the left lung, with a peripheral distribution and thickened blood vessels within the lesion. (e and f): A 63-year-old male with a 1-week history of malaise was confirmed to be nucleic acid test positive for SARS-CoV-2 on presentation. His routine blood test showed a CRP of 259.68 (InCRP = 5.56) with a %Mon of 5.00. Considering his age of 63, this patient had total points of 192 according to our pneumonia risk prediction model, with a pneumonia risk prediction probability of >0.9. The patient underwent a chest CT, which showed multiple lamellar hyperintensities in multiple lobes of both lungs with solid lesion density, bronchial air sign within, and halo sign at the edges of some lesions.

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