Time Series Modeling of Tuberculosis Cases in India from 2017 to 2022 Based on the SARIMA-NNAR Hybrid Model

Table 1

Monthly reported notified TB cases from January 2017 to December 2022.

Months	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
January	144781	149393	195596	196997	183398	161898
February	147133	152119	193142	213699	189377	188081
March	176283	177442	211868	169171	203648	228814
April	160671	193912	221100	83647^∗	134825	220166
May	161146	206750	222455	120737	92827^∗	222469
June	147705	190644	203098	157328	176007	223496
July	144041	184647	212255	140868	207751	207715
August	135239	169828	188278	121820	199885	195197
September	130291	169394	194154	140813	207685	200045
October	126237	179379	186196	150480	188803	159075
November	131882	160726	193955	141548	174757	191940
December	129434	166612	179260	174598	184173	185962

According to the WHO, the COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on TB diagnosis and treatment in India. The ensuing disruptions from the health crisis arising out of the COVID pandemic have prompted lags in diagnosis and the beginning of treatment, which has resulted in a 25% annual shortfall in TB case notifications in 2020 compared with 2019 [41]. In addition, the COVID pandemic has led to the absolute mobilization of healthcare efforts and infrastructure towards its control and management, leaving no attention to other afflictions such as TB and others.