Epidemic Situation of Brucellosis in Jinzhou City of China and Prediction Using the ARIMA Model
Table 3
Correlation analysis of residual error of 3 candidate models.
Lag
ARIMA(1,1,1)(0,1,0)12
ARIMA(1,1,1)(0,1,1)12
ARIMA(1,1,1)(1,1,0)12
Autocorrelation
Box–Ljung value
Autocorrelation
Box–Ljung value
Autocorrelation
Box–Ljung value
1
−0.00
0.00
0.97
−0.02
0.04
0.84
−0.02
0.06
0.81
2
−0.06
0.41
0.82
0.01
0.05
0.98
0.01
0.06
0.97
3
0.06
0.76
0.86
0.02
0.08
0.99
0.07
0.69
0.88
4
−0.07
1.28
0.87
−0.10
1.24
0.87
−0.12
2.18
0.70
5
0.02
1.31
0.93
0.02
1.26
0.94
0.03
2.27
0.81
6
0.06
1.69
0.95
−0.03
1.38
0.97
0.03
2.37
0.88
7
0.02
1.75
0.97
0.00
1.38
0.99
−0.04
2.53
0.93
8
0.09
2.65
0.96
0.06
1.79
0.99
0.06
2.89
0.94
9
0.11
3.92
0.92
0.05
2.11
0.99
0.08
3.61
0.94
10
0.06
4.31
0.93
0.04
2.29
0.99
−0.02
3.66
0.96
11
0.07
4.92
0.94
0.07
2.93
0.99
0.11
5.21
0.92
12
−0.37
21.46
0.04
0.06
3.38
0.99
−0.02
5.26
0.95
13
−0.04
21.67
0.06
−0.12
5.19
0.97
−0.11
6.78
0.91
14
0.20
26.86
0.02
0.11
6.83
0.94
0.16
9.80
0.78
15
−0.00
26.86
0.03
−0.04
7.02
0.96
−0.04
9.97
0.82
16
−0.01
26.88
0.04
−0.04
7.20
0.97
−0.02
10.03
0.87
Note. The correlation analysis of residual error of ARIMA(1,1,1)(0,1,1)12 and ARIMA(1,1,1)(1,1,0)12 models showed that neither of them had statistical significance (), so there was no obvious correlation and residual series was white noise.
