Epidemic Situation of Brucellosis in Jinzhou City of China and Prediction Using the ARIMA Model

Table 2

Correlation analysis of 3 candidate models.

	Nonseasonal model		Seasonal model
	AR1	MA1	SAR1	SMA1
ARIMA(1,1,1)(0,1,0)12
AR1	1	0.34	—	—
MA1	0.34	1	—	—
ARIMA(1,1,1)(0,1,1)12
AR1	1	0.64	—	0.04
MA1	0.64	1	—	−0.10
SMA1	0.04	−0.10	—	1
ARIMA(1,1,1)(1,1,0)12
AR1	1	0.66	0.09	—
MA1	0.66	1	0.15	—
SAR1	0.09	0.15	1	—

Note. The parameters of three candidate models are all less than 1, so there is hardly any correlation.