Dynamic Determinants of Longevity and Exceptional Health
Table 3
Effect of βdynamicβ risk factors calculated from individual trajectories of physiological indices with nonmonotonic patterns on mortality risk in the Framingham Heart Study (original cohort) estimated by the Cox proportional hazards model.
Physiological Index
Risk Factor (RF)
Mean RF (St. Dev.)
Cox Regression Model
Parameter (S.E.)
Hazard Ratio (95% C.I.)
BMI (, , )
Age Max
62.063 (8.762)
β0.001 (0.004)
0.983 (0.887, 1.089)
Max Index
27.869 (4.392)
β0.001 (0.012)
0.997 (0.884, 1.124)
26.171 (4.187)
0.007 (0.012)
1.034 (0.925, 1.156)
Left Slope
0.220 (0.505)
β0.017 (0.049)
0.996 (0.975, 1.018)
Right Slope
β0.224 (0.576)
(0.025)
0.959 (0.948, 0.970)
0.729 (0.371)
(0.073)
1.153 (1.088, 1.221)
Sex
(0.064)
1.753 (1.545, 1.989)
DBP (, , )
Age Max
55.165 (6.973)
(0.004)
0.903 (0.822, 0.992)
Max Index
86.804 (10.465)
(0.003)
1.245 (1.141, 1.358)
80.471 (12.962)
0.001 (0.003)
1.008 (0.942, 1.079)
Left Slope
0.842 (1.439)
0.006 (0.021)
1.006 (0.966, 1.047)
Right Slope
β0.988 (1.976)
(0.010)
0.939 (0.918, 0.961)
3.984 (1.383)
(0.016)
1.172 (1.114, 1.233)
Sex
(0.043)
1.671 (1.536, 1.818)
HC (, , )
Age Max
66.061 (7.020)
(0.004)
0.882 (0.795, 0.978)
Max Index
46.567 (3.265)
(0.012)
1.108 (1.003, 1.224)
43.756 (4.848)
0.007 (0.008)
1.031 (0.960, 1.108)
Left Slope
0.390 (0.733)
β0.011 (0.054)
0.996 (0.956, 1.037)
Right Slope
β0.856 (3.533)
(0.007)
0.988 (0.979, 0.997)
1.472 (0.551)
(0.045)
1.066 (1.006, 1.129)
Sex
(0.060)
1.488 (1.323, 1.675)
PR (, , )
Age Max
47.279 (7.676)
(0.005)
0.851 (0.742, 0.977)
Max Index
81.206 (10.689)
(0.004)
1.247 (1.126, 1.381)
71.554 (15.226)
β0.002 (0.003)
0.979 (0.904, 1.059)
Left Slope
1.535 (3.445)
0.007 (0.013)
1.011 (0.972, 1.052)
Right Slope
β0.898 (1.980)
(0.021)
0.927 (0.886, 0.970)
5.057 (1.978)
0.028 (0.017)
1.070 (0.988, 1.159)
Sex
(0.070)
2.069 (1.804, 2.374)
SCH (, , )
Age Max
55.574 (8.298)
0.002 (0.005)
1.023 (0.923, 1.134)
Max Index
261.965 (42.429)
0.001 (0.001)
1.059 (0.958, 1.170)
225.428 (61.457)
β0.0003 (0.001)
0.981 (0.903, 1.066)
Left Slope
5.517 (8.442)
β0.005 (0.005)
0.975 (0.921, 1.032)
Right Slope
β4.121 (8.689)
(0.003)
0.969 (0.946, 0.993)
13.484 (6.237)
(0.004)
1.101 (1.039, 1.166)
Sex
(0.073)
1.761 (1.526, 2.031)
Notes. , , , , for other estimates: ; Sex: 1βmale, 0βfemale; the other Risk Factors are continuous and calculated as described in Section 2; denotes the total number of individuals; is the total number of events (deaths); is the total number of censored individuals; Hazard Ratios for continuous risk factors are for an increase from the first quartile to the third quartile of respective empirical distributions.