Climate Warming in Response to Emission Reductions Consistent with the Paris Agreement

Table 1

Temperature projections for Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) and representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (relative to preindustrial levels).

Scenario		Temperature increase (°C)
		2030^1	2100^2
INDC	Unconditional	1.41 (1.29∼1.55)	3.17 (2.67∼3.74)
	Conditional	1.39 (1.28∼1.53)	2.80 (2.38∼3.27)
RCP 2.6	430–480 ppm (CO2 eq. concentration in 2100)	∼1.3	1.5–1.7
RCP 4.5	580–650 ppm	∼1.4	2.3–2.6
	650–720 ppm		2.6–2.9
RCP 6.0	720–1000 ppm	∼1.3	3.1–3.7
RCP 8.5	>1000 ppm	∼1.5	4.1–4.8

“1” represents the best estimate (median). “∼” refers to the approximate estimate based on RCP scenario data from the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). “2” refers to RCP data directly from Table 6.3 in the IPCC Workgroup 3 report.