Climate Warming in Response to Emission Reductions Consistent with the Paris Agreement

Figure 4

Global temperature increases under Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) scenarios. (a) unconditional INDC, (b) conditional INDC, and (c) temperature change relative to the preindustrial level (CMIP5: the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; MAGICC: Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change). The method of calculating temperature response to INDC emissions is presented in Section 2.3. The INDC-induced warming is calculated based on (2) by multiplying (cumulative carbon emission under the INDC scenarios) by (the ratio of GHG-attributable warming to cumulative emissions).

(a)

(b)

(c)