Impact Assessment of Uncertainty Propagation of Ensemble NWP Rainfall to Flood Forecasting with Catchment Scale

Figure 5

(a) Ensemble areal rainfall forecast over the Shingu river basin in the form of box plots plotted from 0 to 24 hr forecast time, excluding overlapped forecast time (from 25 to 30 hr) for the overall comparison for the Typhoon Talas. (b) Verification results of areal rainfall with normalized RMSE and log ratio bias for Typhoon Talas. Red circles and black squares mean the indexes of the control run and the mean value of ensemble forecast, respectively. The lower and upper bounds of the black lines correspond to the minimum and maximum values, respectively.

(a)

(b)